After two looooong years, Covid levels are finally declining around the world. A decrease in restrictions along with an increase in the number of vaccinated people are making travel easier and safer. So, after two years of being cooped up at home, families, couples, and friends are taking any opportunity they can get to go outside and travel. But, as travel increases, so does aircraft usage, and correspondingly, aircraft emissions.
Covid’s Impact on Aviation
Before Covid hit in 2020, the number of airline passengers per year globally was at an all time high, nearly 4.7 billion. After Covid, the number of airline passengers dropped by more than 50%, to a measly 2.2 billion. Furthermore, the number of flights dropped from 40 million to 22 million after the pandemic struck. In addition, 64% of planes were grounded to minimize losses. With less flights flying, aircraft emissions toppled as well. Fuel consumption, which is an indicator of CO2 emissions, dropped 45% when the pandemic hit. Now, as the world starts to re-open, aircrafts are flying again and more importantly, emissions are going back up.
Future Aircraft Emission Outlook
It’s predicted that pre-pandemic levels for air traffic and passengers will be achieved by 2025. From there, the FAA predicts that passenger traffic will continue to exponentially increase at the levels it did from 2010-2019, about a 3% increase per year. Right now, aircrafts account for 3% of global CO2 emissions, but that number can be up to 22% by 2050 assuming the predicted growth in passenger traffic. But, with new developments in the airline industry, not only can airline emissions go down, but they can even be eliminated entirely.
Solutions and Possible Net-Zero Emissions?
One of the most popular methods used currently to reduce aircraft emissions is to use more eco-friendly fuel. SAF is a biofuel that is similar to jet fuel in almost every aspect except for the fact that it has a smaller carbon footprint. Many of the most powerful cargo airlines like FedEx and Amazon Air have made pledges to use SAF in their flights. SAF has the potential to cut aviation emissions by 80% and it would be easy to implement into almost every modern aircraft, but its current drawback is that it is very expensive. While it may be viable in cargo airlines where demand isn’t a key factor, in passenger airlines, where profits are made off of the number of passengers, the high price of SAF would likely result in an increase in ticket prices and a decrease in demand and profits for that airline.
Conclusion
While the future outlook for airline emissions looks grim, cooperation between large companies can result in lower emissions and even possibly net-zero emissions in the aviation sector. For now, as the world opens back up, we will just have to look on as airline and passenger traffic continues to grow, but, in the not so far future, we might just see airline emissions start to fall.